NATO leaders are convening in Washington this week for a 75th anniversary summit designed as a show of strength and solidarity. Looming over the celebrations are questions about President Biden’s electoral prospects and what another Trump administration could pose for the 32-member alliance.
Former president and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump has repeatedly disparaged NATO while praising adversaries such as Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose ongoing invasion of Ukraine is expected to be a key topic at the summit.
Earlier this year, Trump shocked officials on both sides of the Atlantic when he said he would encourage Russia to attack “delinquent” NATO allies that, in his judgment, didn’t spend enough money on defense. He made similar remarks in last month’s presidential debate with President Biden, indicating he wouldn’t protect allies against Russia. “We’re paying everybody’s bills,” Trump said.
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His statements mischaracterize how NATO works.
NATO member nations all make payments to cover the operating expenses of the organization, which was founded in the aftermath of World War II to help Western Europe counter the Soviet Union with support from Canada and the United States. But they don’t pay membership fees to remain in the alliance, so there’s no delinquency to speak of.
Countries do, however, commit to spending at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense each year, with the goal of ensuring the alliance’s military readiness and deterring any potential attacks. The commitment is a guideline, not a requirement, that has been in place for nearly two decades.
Last year, 11 countries met or exceeded that target, according to NATO statistics. The rest spent smaller portions of their GDP on defense. (Iceland, the only member state with no armed forces, is omitted from the data set.)
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Most of the countries that spent beyond the 2 percent mark either share a border with Russia or sit near the front lines of the Ukraine war. Trump’s insinuation that they’re not paying is false.
Poland — which shares part of its northern border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and a long stretch of its southeastern border with Ukraine — spent a greater share of its GDP on defense last year than any other member state, at 3.9 percent.
The United States ranked second, at 3.49 percent. But in raw numbers, the $860 billion U.S. defense budget is more than double that of all other NATO allies combined.
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Illegally annexed by Russia in March 2014
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Crimea
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Illegally annexed by Russia in March 2014
CROATIA
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NATO member countries
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Illegally annexed by Russia in March 2014
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Other member states spending more than 2 percent of their GDP include Estonia, Lithuania, Romania and Finland, which joined the alliance last year. (It’s worth noting that most of the big spenders have national laws or policies that require 2 percent defense spending in accordance with NATO’s goals.)
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Countries farther from Russia were more likely to spend below the 2 percent guideline. Some — including Germany, Italy and Canada — spent considerably under that target, despite having large economies and GDPs topping $1 trillion. Others, such as Luxembourg, may struggle to meet the threshold because of the limited size of their militaries and defense industries.
Most NATO allies are spending a greater share of their GDP on defense than they were in 2014. That year, Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula and annexed it, inflaming tensions in Eastern Europe and prompting NATO to double down on its 2 percent spending goal.
At the time, only three allies were meeting that target. The number increased to seven in 2022. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February of that year, defense spending spiked in several countries.
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Poland again topped the list, with its defense spending jumping from 2.4 percent of its GDP to 3.9 percent. In total, Poland spent more than $29 billion on defense last year, nearly $12 billion more than it spent in 2022 and three times what it spent a decade ago. France, Slovakia, Hungary and several others also ratcheted up defense spending after the Russian invasion.
Sweden officially joined NATO this year, becoming the alliance’s 32nd member after being blocked at various points by Turkey and Hungary. The Swedish prime minister pledged to meet the 2 percent defense target from this year onward.
Some member states are spending more than they have in previous years but have yet to exceed the 2 percent mark. Others have flatlined.
The pressure to ramp up defense spending hasn’t gone unnoticed.
In February, following Trump’s remarks about NATO and Russia, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised to meet NATO’s 2 percent goal. “That is urgently needed,” Scholz said. “Because as harsh as this reality is, we do not live in times of peace.”